Beginner's Guide · Read the direction behind the numbers
What Moves US Stocks
Stocks are fundamentally a way of pricing "future cash flows" and "the cost of borrowing." The higher rates go and the stronger the tightening bias, the worse it is for stocks — especially growth names.
Bullish · Latest move favorableBearish · Latest move unfavorableTwo-way · Depends on context (see card)
Card colour reflects whether the latest move helps or hurts this asset · ↻ Tap a card for its definition & impact · ⓘ Hover for a quick note
Stocks are fundamentally a way of pricing "future cash flows" and "the cost of borrowing." The higher rates go and the stronger the tightening bias, the worse it is for stocks — especially growth names.
— Monetary Policy & Rates
Fed Rate Decision
Current
3.88%
Effective federal funds rate
Prev. 3.88% · unchanged
As of Oct 8
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Fed Rate Decision
Rates are the cost of money. Hikes make borrowing pricier and compress valuations; cuts release liquidity and lift prices.
▲Hike → bearish for stocks
▼Cut → bullish for stocks
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CME FedWatch
Markets price the odds of the next move in real time via rate futures. What matters is the direction of the shift, not the absolute level.
▲Higher hike odds → bearish
▼Higher cut odds → bullish
10Y Treasury Yield
Current
5.22%
The global pricing anchor
Prev. 5.28% · −0.06pp
As of Oct 8
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10Y Treasury Yield
A higher yield means a higher risk-free return plus a higher discount rate — growth-stock valuations are squeezed first.
▲Yield up → bearish (esp. tech)
▼Yield down → bullish
Dot Plot · Minutes
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Dot Plot · Minutes
A hawkish tilt (toward tightening) weighs on stocks; a dovish tilt (toward easing) lifts them.
🦅Hawkish → bearish
🕊Dovish → bullish
— Inflation Data
Consumer Price Index
Current
3.4%
Headline inflation, incl. food & energy
Prev. 3.3% · +0.05pp
As of August 2026 · Published Sep 11
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Consumer Price Index
Hot inflation reinforces hike expectations, which weighs on stocks. What matters is the gap vs. expectations.
▲Above estimate → bearish
▼Below estimate → bullish
Core PCE
Current
3.0%
The Fed's preferred gauge
Prev. 3.0% · +0.02pp
As of August 2026 · Published Sep 30
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Core PCE
Weighted more heavily than CPI and more able to sway policy. Same logic as CPI.
— Jobs & Economic Activity
Nonfarm Payrolls
Current
+29K
Released the first Friday monthly
Prev. +133K
As of September 2026 · Published Oct 2
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Nonfarm Payrolls
Too strong reinforces hike expectations (bearish); too weak stokes recession fears (also bearish). Markets like it not too hot, not too cold.
▲Far above est. → often bearish (tightening)
▼Far below est. → often bearish (recession)
Unemployment Rate
Current
4.2%
Hovering low
Prev. 4.1% · +0.10pp
As of September 2026 · Published Oct 2
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Unemployment Rate
Usually a rise is bearish. But in a hiking cycle a mild rise is sometimes read as 'bad news is good news.'
▲Sharp rise → bearish (recession signal)
▼Mild decline → usually bullish
GDP Growth
Current
2.2%
Steady expansion
Prev. 2.5% · −0.27pp
As of Q2 2026 · Revised Sep 30
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GDP Growth
Steady growth supports corporate earnings; but if it overheats and stokes tightening fears, the upside is discounted.
▲Steady growth → bullish
▲Overheating → bullish turns neutral
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ISM · PMI
50 is the dividing line: above means expansion, below means contraction.
▲Above 50 → expansion · bullish
▼Below 50 → contraction · bearish
— Sentiment & Geopolitics
Earnings Season
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Earnings Season
What matters isn't how much they earn, but the gap vs. market expectations.
▲Beat → bullish
▼Miss → bearish
Volatility Index (VIX)
Current
Calm
Market North's own reading
As of Oct 8
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Volatility Index (VIX)
A spike usually signals selling and risk-off; a drop signals calm.
Geopolitical Risk
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Geopolitical Risk
Escalation lifts risk-off sentiment and weighs on the broad market short-term; but energy and defense stocks may buck the trend.
▲Escalation → bearish for the broad market
⚑Energy/defense → may rally against the trend
Tariffs · Trade War
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Tariffs · Trade War
Tariffs raise costs, disrupt supply chains and create policy uncertainty — and uncertainty itself is the market’s enemy.
▲Escalation → bearish for risk assets
▼De-escalation / deal → bullish